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籌碼集中度介紹

<aside> 🏄 Holder Concentration data is most used in token perpetual futures distribution assessment. ‼️ Risk warning: any data/indicator has its advantages, disadvantages, and limitations. Please make sure to understand them carefully, crypto trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. DYOR.

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Data Fundamental

Holder Concentration Overview & Long/Short Ranking

Holder Concentration Overview & Long/Short Ranking

Blave **Holder Concentration** (HC) is a value calculated using the normalized data of long and short exchange perpetual futures accounts over 365-days (one year). The larger the absolute value of HC, the more the perps are concentrated in a few accounts; conversely, the smaller the value, the more dispersed of long/short perps positions.

The overview of Holder Concentration (left-side in the picture) represents the long-short account comparison in certain exchange, and the value is calculated based on token weighted average methodology. The HC token ranking table (right-side in the picture) is sorted by the long/short concentration level of each token, with total three tags to discern concentration level: concentrated, highly-concentrated, and over-concentrated.

How to Use Holder Concentration Data? 🤠

Holder Concentration can be considered a leading indicator. Changes in HC values directly reflect market participants' (retail/institutional/whale/market maker..) views on a specific token. Derivatives market are a zero-sum market where retail/institutional traders and market makers can be counter-parties to each other. Thus, understanding the changes in Holder Concentration data can provide insights into the competitive dynamics between these sides. No doubt, the actual market situation may be more complex than we think.

💡 For example, if an institution plans to accumulate and take long positions in a low price range (so-called accumulation phase), it might buy at the expected price through various methods (such as price manipulation, information release, etc.) to obtain more positions. At this point, the HC value will start to increase. As the token price continues to rise to a certain level, and as retail traders enter to take long positions while institutions take profits, the HC value will begin to decrease after or before reaching price high.

There are two simple thinking approaches to using Holder Concentration data:

  1. Follow the minority (institutional) in the same direction. In a bullish trend, choose tokens with a highly long-concentration level to long.
  2. Do counter-trade to over-concentrated status. In a bullish trend, choose long over-concentrated tokens to short. To capture the reversal trend when long positions are closed for profit. The same logic applies in a bearish trend.

User can overview top HC ranking tokens and explore trading opportunities under HC history.


🙋🏻‍♂️ Here are some examples:

BTC 1D Holder Concentration History

BTC 1D Holder Concentration History

With 1D timeframe and BTC as an example (above), the HC of BTC during the period (4/21/2024 ~ 5/15/2024) is predominantly in long-concentrated (green bars). This indicates that during this period, more retail traders are shorting and institutional against them, while the long positions were concentrated in a few accounts (potentially market makers, institutions, or pro players).

We can learn how traders’ positions change with market change through Holder Concentration chart. By observing the increase and decrease of HC (perps holding change by retail and institutional traders) can help better analysis future market changes.

For instance, from the red circled area, we can see that when the BTC long concentration value starts to decrease continuously from the peak (shrinking green bars), it may means that the few accounts holding long positions are starting to take profits, or retail traders are beginning to go long. Subsequently, the price falls, the concentration continues to decrease, and the token trend gradually turns bearish. In another situation, the blue circled area, we can observe that before the price bottoms out, the short-concentrated status has already started to disperse (shrinking red bars), indicating that retail traders are beginning to short while institutions are shifting to holding long positions.